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Asset Price Bubbles: Housing Markets Data
Mrhal, Jakub ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Streblov, Pavel (referee)
This study assess Prague real estate market from price level bubble existence point of view. For this purpose construct loglinear regression models for estimating price level of purchase and renting for several segments on the real estate market. These estimated price levels afterwards compare to theoretical price levels set by user cost concept, which employs fundamental factors such as capital costs, depreciation rates, personal income and property taxes, additional asset risk and expected capital gain. Study concludes that Prague real estate market does not currently experience positive price bubble, even one of the segments assess as underpriced.
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Asset Price Bubbles: Real Estate Markets
Mrhal, Jakub ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Streblov, Pavel (referee)
This study deals with asset price bubbles and possible approaches for their identification. Afterwards focuses on real estate pricing mechanism and defines user cost or alternatively imputed rent as sum of all cash-flows connected to owning real estate property. These cash-flows consist of capital cost, depreciation rate, personal income and property taxes, additional asset risk and expected capital gain. Then we construct loglinear regression models for estimating recent price levels of purchase and renting for several segments on the real estate market. These estimated price levels after that compare with user costs. Comparison provides us with information about potential mispricing on Prague real estate market in examined segments. Study concludes that from long run point of view, all subjected segments are slightly underpriced.
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Asset Price Bubbles: Housing Markets Data
Mrhal, Jakub ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Streblov, Pavel (referee)
This study assess Prague real estate market from price level bubble existence point of view. For this purpose construct loglinear regression models for estimating price level of purchase and renting for several segments on the real estate market. These estimated price levels afterwards compare to theoretical price levels set by user cost concept, which employs fundamental factors such as capital costs, depreciation rates, personal income and property taxes, additional asset risk and expected capital gain. Study concludes that Prague real estate market does not currently experience positive price bubble, even one of the segments assess as underpriced.
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Stock market panics, safe havens and implications for the portfolio management
Hýža, David ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Derner, Tomáš (referee)
The thesis addresses the instabilities in stock markets in the USA. There are many factors that may increase the price volatility, or even cause a panic. During these turbulent times investors can seek shelter in investment safe havens that allow protecting their portfolio against significant financial losses. The focus is put on identifying the situations where it is appropriate to use the safe havens and how to properly time all transactions. Historical insight, events study and investigating economic cycles are the integral part of the work.
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Speculative bubbles in financial markets
Roček, Jindřich ; Brada, Jaroslav (advisor) ; Kubát, Max (referee)
The bachelor thesis explores the phenomenon of speculative bubbles in financial markets. The aim is to define possible causes of speculative bubbles, and specify circumstances under which they can be prevented. The first chapter explains the essence of the examined phenomenon. In the following chapter, two theoretical approaches to the formation of asset prices in markets are explained, the efficient market theory and behavioral finance. The third chapter analyses causes, coarse and collapse of each individual bubble. The work uses twelve samples of asset price bubbles from history to meet the objectives. The final chapter examines the influence of government intervention and monetary policy on the formation of bubbles and proposes stemming recommendations for the responsible authority. The considerable complexity of the phenomenon and a large number of factors influencing price movements means that bubbles cannot be quantified ex ante. Given the current market conditions it is reasonable to expect further occurence of asset price bubbles in financial markets.
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Monetary policy and asset prices.
Šperl, Adam ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Houštecký, Martin (referee)
The goal of this thesis is to demonstrate why it is so difficult to find answer whether monetary policy should include asset prices into monetary rule and therefore increase financial stability. This is because monetary policy is potentially able to prevent the emergence of price bubbles. However, definition of bubbles is problematic itself, as well as identification, even ex-post. It appears that the inclusion of asset prices in monetary policy can reduce the variability of output, at the cost of increasing variability of inflation. The necessary condition is the ability to influence asset prices through monetary policy and early identification of imbalances. Furthermore, on empirical data from the Czech Republic and the USA is shown in the example of the 2008 crisis, that the central banks can use the warning signals from the market assets (eg. real estate market). But current monetary policy is not focused on financial stability. Macroprudential policy, combined with to some extent discretionary monetary policy represent a real and likely trajectory of future economic policy in the form of a new framework of care for financial stability.
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The Economic Crisis in Specific EU Countries: Spain and Ireland
Příhoda, Pavel ; Stuchlíková, Zuzana (advisor) ; Hnát, Pavel (referee)
The thesis analyses and compares the economies of Spain and Ireland in the run up to and during the current economic and financial crisis. Firstly, the focus is on the pre-crisis period since the mid 90's, the causes and extent of the price bubble on the property markets, the caracter of lending boom and the indebtedness of the private sector. The end of the lending boom and conjuncture on the real estate markets in 2006-2007 had strong impact on real economy and the financial sector. Both countries currently pass through a three-level crisis: economic, banking and debt crisis. The aim of the thesis is to examine their causes, evolution and causal links. The paper also illustrates future perspectives of both countries in context of the membership in EMU and possible solutions to their current situation.
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The Causes of Formation of the Price Bubbles in the Capital Markets
Šimíček, Petr ; Dočkal, Dalibor (advisor) ; Řežábek, Pavel (referee)
This study analyses, why and how price bubbles are made on the capital markets, how different economical theories see their development and implications, how these theories could predict them and which impact bubbles have on the economy as whole and separated markets. Special accent is given on the paradigm of the behavioral finance, theories flowing from the Austrian school, fundamental analysis and other indirect factors. These problems are (in connection with nowadays world financial crisis) widely discussed among economists. The problem of price bubbles was in focus during 20's, 30's, 70's and 90's. The last part tries to find out a difficult way, how to prevent bubbles and what possibilities are during the attempts to find them. This paper operates with deduction and economical analysis method. Conclusion summarizes the results and tries to outline future development.
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Stock Price Bubbles
Li, Xiaokun ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Veselý, Marek (referee)
Economic bubbles are playing an increasingly significant role in the current global economy. We believe these bubbles are to a certain extent dominating the real economy, and, therefore, research based on this specific economic phenomenon is becoming increasingly popular and important. The focus of this master's thesis is based upon analysis of stock price bubbles. This thesis contains author analyzed historical cases representative of stock price bubbles; summarizations of their traditional features; common factors causing their formation; and reasons leading to their bursting. Solutions to the dilemma of stock price bubbles are discussed in depth, and emphasis is placed upon clearly deciphering different theoretical approaches regarding this phenomenon-not only from the efficient market hypothesis viewpoint but also from the perspective of behavioral finance. The research contains testing and measuring methodologies of stock price bubbles, and the author's view concerning them is strongly supported by the results within the empirical data-testing chapter. Upon reading, one can expect to achieve a basic overview of this forefront science.
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